South Africa's Cities Suffer as Ruling Party Fractures; Public Services at Risk

South Africa’s cities are paying the price for a ruling party at war with itself.

The African National Congress’s decline has become unmistakable to ordinary South Africans watching their government deteriorate. What began as warning signs in 2016 has accelerated into a cascade of electoral losses that now threatens the party’s hold on power in the country’s most consequential cities and municipalities. For citizens dependent on reliable local governance, the implications are stark: a party consumed by internal warfare is failing to deliver basic services and accountable leadership.

The collapse became visible at the party’s 2016 local government manifesto launch in Port Elizabeth, now Gqeberha. The Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, once reliably packed, sat barely half-full. Party supporters from inland provinces and the Eastern Cape, bused in for the event, chose instead to visit the beach and local shopping malls rather than remain for speeches. They had heard the promises before. By the time then-president Jacob Zuma took the podium, thousands were streaming out. The election results months later confirmed what that exodus foreshadowed: the ANC lost its guaranteed majority in most metros and was pushed from power in Gauteng’s major cities and Nelson Mandela Bay itself.

The party’s most recent manifesto launch, held over the past weekend in Diepsloot, Johannesburg, reflected how far the organization has retreated. Gone were the mega-stadiums of previous campaigns. Instead, the ANC gathered in a community park in the Riverside settlement, a mixed-income development built as a model for delivering housing to poor communities. The venue choice served a practical purpose: avoiding the embarrassment of empty seats. Even this modest setting could not mask the party’s deeper dysfunction.

The launch exposed the depth of internal collapse. The ANC had repeatedly promised to announce mayoral candidates for metros and secondary cities but failed to meet multiple deadlines. When the party finally acted, it released what it called short lists that were actually long lists. Further fighting erupted during a National Executive Committee meeting before the party settled on candidates. The organization then announced a new requirement that all councillors possess a matric qualification or obtain one within 12 months of the election, framing basic literacy and numeracy as a breakthrough policy. For residents waiting on functioning water systems and reliable refuse collection, that framing says everything.

These are symptoms of a party eating itself from within. The roots of this self-destruction trace back further than the 2007 Polokwane conference, where delegates removed Thabo Mbeki and installed Jacob Zuma. The fracture began in 2001, when Zuma declared unwavering confidence in Mbeki, only to become the unlikely champion of leftist factions within the tripartite alliance who sought to hobble the president. By the time Polokwane arrived, the civil war was already underway. The ANC has never recovered.

What followed was a normalization of corruption during the Zuma years, then splinters, defections, and a party structure now dominated by factional warfare. The current battles raging among the Top Seven, the National Working Committee, and the National Executive Committee are continuations of this same conflict. Leaders are fighting for control of local structures to secure votes for the December 2027 national conference, where a successor to Cyril Ramaphosa will be chosen.

The irony is corrosive. The factions battling fiercely over municipalities are fighting for control of patronage machinery and budgets, yet many will likely lose access to these resources after November’s municipal election. The ANC faces the prospect of losing most metros and many secondary cities. The patronage pipeline that has sustained factional loyalty will evaporate, leaving supporters and officials dependent on that system suddenly cut off.

Meanwhile, the public bears the real cost. Citizens in South Africa’s major cities cannot rely on coherent leadership or service delivery from an organization preoccupied with settling internal scores. The manifesto released this past weekend, despite containing some realistic commitments alongside considerable over-promising, reflects a party that has not accepted its own decline.

The second-last nail in the ANC’s political coffin will be driven on 4 November, when municipal elections are held. Whether the party retains enough coherence after that date to mount any credible recovery before 2029 is the question South Africans dependent on functional local government will be watching most closely.