Africa's AI Future at Stake: Build Capacity Now or Risk Permanent Dependence

Africa’s citizens stand to gain or lose enormously from the artificial intelligence revolution, depending on whether the continent builds its own AI capabilities or settles for consuming technologies developed and owned elsewhere. That was the central warning delivered at the CNBC Africa AI Summit on Thursday, where Gauteng MEC for Economic Development, Agriculture and Rural Development Vuyiswa Ramokgopa laid out what is at stake for ordinary people across the continent.

The global AI market is projected to reach $4.8 trillion by 2033. Yet the computing power, data infrastructure, research capacity, intellectual property and investment underpinning it remain concentrated in a handful of countries and corporations. For Africa’s working people, entrepreneurs and young job-seekers, that concentration is not an abstract concern.

“Artificial intelligence is no longer a future technology waiting to arrive. It is already changing how businesses make decisions, how products are designed and manufactured, how financial services manage risk, how logistics systems operate and how agriculture and healthcare respond to increasingly complex information,” Ramokgopa said.

Without deliberate action, she argued, Africa risks becoming little more than a provider of markets, consumers, data and labour, while the highest-value elements of the technology are developed and owned elsewhere. The question is no longer whether AI will transform economies. The question is who will participate in that transformation, and on whose terms.

Bill Gates has described AI as potentially “the greatest equaliser ever invented, or the worst source of injustice,” a characterisation that captures precisely what is at stake for citizens across the continent.

Ramokgopa outlined a three-part approach for Gauteng: building the capabilities needed to participate in the AI economy; using AI to strengthen sectors where the province already has competitive advantage; and ensuring the benefits are widely shared rather than concentrated among a narrow group of firms and highly skilled individuals. “Our AI economy must be inclusive by design, expanding opportunities for enterprises, workers and young people,” she said.

Not every African country or province needs to build a frontier AI model. But economies must identify where they can develop specialised applications, intellectual property and companies capable of tackling local productive challenges. Gauteng, she suggested, is well positioned to do so.

Building that economy requires far more than algorithms. The necessary foundations include digital infrastructure, connectivity, data, computing capacity, reliable energy, investment, research institutions, skills development and an enabling institutional environment. Without these fundamentals, AI cannot deliver its promised productivity gains for the people who need them most.

“AI cannot compensate for weak infrastructure or inadequate investment. It cannot substitute for capable institutions. But where these foundations are strengthened, AI can become a powerful multiplier of productivity,” Ramokgopa said.

Meanwhile, the risks of getting this wrong are concrete and human. What would it mean if Gauteng became an AI hub but young people lacked the skills to participate in the economy being created? What if large corporations adopted AI while smaller businesses could not afford or access the technology? What if township entrepreneurs remained consumers rather than becoming developers, suppliers and innovators?

“That is not the outcome we want. Our economic priorities are clear: attract investment, create sustainable jobs and strengthen good governance. AI must advance all three,” Ramokgopa said.

Gauteng has secured approximately R206 billion in investment commitments at the 2026 Gauteng Investment Conference, supported by more than 90 bankable projects, and has mobilised more than R518 billion in investment over the past two years. The real measure of success, she stressed, is implementation: when factories are built, equipment installed, technology deployed, companies begin operating and people are employed.

The summit also surfaced how AI is already reshaping the services ordinary people rely on. IBM Research Africa research scientist Ndivhuwo Makondo noted that AI agents are moving beyond code generation into data management processes that can reduce the time from raw data to actionable insights, a development that could be particularly useful for smaller organisations without extensive data expertise, though significant bottlenecks remain in preparing data for analysis.

Nedbank Divisional Executive Portia Matsena said most organisations could adopt Agentic AI, systems capable of independently carrying out a series of tasks and making decisions to achieve defined goals. Entry-level functions such as bank tellers have already been automated in some cases, helping increase sales from 5% to 13% while freeing staff for higher-value work. She believes about 90% of organisations could deploy Agentic AI while re-skilling employees to perform more valuable roles.

Absa Group CEO Kenny Fihla said AI is already changing client onboarding, query resolution and software development in financial services, with most code now effectively created by AI. Organisations face a proliferation of tools and must select technology suited to specific problems to avoid losing revenue and missing potential benefits.

PwC CEO Dion Shango raised a concern that reaches beyond boardrooms: AI is challenging the traditional professional-services model, which has long relied on billing clients for time. As clients increasingly use AI to perform work themselves, a deeper question emerges about how future professionals will be trained if technology increasingly performs work previously given to trainees and junior staff. “It’s essential we upskill and reskill our people to reinvent our value proposition,” Shango said.

ADG Group Chief Innovation Officer Cliff De Witt emphasised that regulation will be critical as organisations deploy AI, with regulators facing the challenge of keeping pace with rapid technological change. AI itself can be deployed in cyberattacks, impersonation and identity theft, meaning defenders must increasingly use the technology to protect against it. “To defend properly, we must also use AI offensively. AI can reason over large data sets 24/7 and trigger alerts to humans,” De Witt said.

Whether Africa’s citizens end up as architects or bystanders of the AI economy may ultimately depend on decisions made, and investments committed, in the next few years.