South Africans Losing Faith in Coalition Government as Public Pessimism Deepens

Roughly seven in ten South Africans believe their country is moving in the wrong direction. That figure has barely shifted in four years, and the brief hope that coalition government might change it is now fading fast.

Midway through the electoral cycle between 2024 and 2029, public faith in the Government of National Unity is eroding. Two separate measures of sentiment tracked by the Social Research Foundation reveal the same pattern: citizens think the country is on the wrong track, and the optimism that greeted the GNU’s formation has drained away over the past two years.

The timeline matters. In the months before the May 2024 election, voter sentiment showed cautious signs of improvement. That mood deepened immediately after the vote and the GNU’s formation, as citizens appeared to embrace the prospect of coalition governance. The promise proved short-lived. As the GNU proceeded without delivering substantive reforms, confidence slowly collapsed back into the deep pessimism that had defined public mood since 2022.

Data spanning July 2022 to July 2026 illustrates just how stubborn that pessimism is. Roughly seven in ten South Africans say the country is moving in the wrong direction. Only two in ten believe it is heading the right way. That ratio has held virtually unchanged for years, with one brief exception at the 2024 electoral moment.

A second measure tells a similar story. The share of respondents who say the GNU is functioning effectively has dropped by roughly ten percentage points over two years. As of July 2026, less than half of South Africans believe the coalition is working well. Those who say it is not working well have nearly doubled, rising from 21 percent in September 2024 to 34 percent in July 2026.

The cause, according to political analyst Bheki Mahlobo, is not difficult to identify. “It is all in the economy and living standards,” he said. “South Africa’s economic growth outlook has not improved under the GNU because the government has not driven the necessary key reforms, and as a consequence the frustration that was directed at the ANC pre-2024 is now coming to be directed at the broader GNU.”

South Africa’s growth rate sits near 1 percent of GDP, well below that of comparable economies. Mahlobo argues the path forward is straightforward: reforms to electricity policy, oil and gas policy, and rail and ports policy could lift growth to approximately 3 percent. Three decades of South African economic and political data point to a consistent pattern, he says. As growth rises and living standards improve, public support for the government of the day rises with it. The connection between citizens’ daily experience and their confidence in institutions is direct.

Whether that shift happens depends significantly on leadership within the African National Congress. Mahlobo’s assessment of who might lead that change is contested. Many mainstream analysts believe Patrice Motsepe has no interest in the ANC leadership and will not pursue it. Mahlobo reads the situation differently. “We continue to pick up a sense that if there is a clean way to the top of the ANC he will take it and will emerge as South Africa’s next president,” he said. “If he does, I am fairly confident that the national growth track is going to lift.”

For ordinary South Africans, the stakes are concrete: jobs, electricity, the cost of living, and trust in the institutions meant to serve them. Without economic improvement, public confidence in the GNU will likely keep falling. The open question heading toward 2029 is whether the reforms that could reverse that slide will arrive before the patience of citizens runs out entirely.