South Africa's Municipal Crisis: 500 Councillor Jobs at Risk After November Elections
Electoral decline threatens continuity in local government service delivery
Five hundred ANC councillors could be out of work after November’s local government elections, and the ripple effects on South Africa’s municipal governance may run deeper than the headline number suggests.
An analysis by The Common Sense projects that approximately 500 African National Congress councillors face job losses as the party’s electoral support continues to slide ahead of the local government elections. For ordinary South Africans who depend on functional municipal councils for water, sanitation, and basic service delivery, the prospect of widespread displacement among elected representatives raises real questions about continuity and accountability at the local level.
The scale becomes clearer against the broader picture of municipal representation. In 2021, nearly 8,800 council seats were contested nationally, with the ANC securing 4,548 of them. This November’s election will offer slightly more seats, approaching 9,000 in total. Yet current polling indicates the ANC will capture only around 4,000 of those seats, a substantial reduction in the party’s municipal footprint.
South Africa’s mixed municipal voting system has historically worked in the ANC’s favour. Half of all councillors are elected from geographical wards, while the other half come from party lists designed to ensure proportional representation. In ward contests, the candidate receiving the most votes wins outright, regardless of whether they achieve an absolute majority. Because ANC support is distributed widely across the country rather than concentrated in specific regions, the party can claim ward seats with relatively modest vote shares while opposition votes fragment among multiple parties.
Historical data shows this advantage has been consistent. In 2021, the ANC won 46 percent of the national vote but secured approximately 52 percent of available seats. The pattern held in earlier cycles too: 54 percent of votes in 2016 translated into roughly 60 percent of seats, and in 2011 the party won 62 percent of votes while taking 67 percent of seats. That five-percentage-point boost between vote share and seat share has given the ANC outsized municipal representation for over a decade.
By contrast, current polling suggests this structural cushion may no longer be enough. The Common Sense found ANC support standing at 39 percent among voters, a significant drop from previous cycles. If that level holds through November and the party maintains its typical five-point gain in seat conversion, the ANC could expect to win approximately 4,000 of the 9,000 available seats, meaning the loss of roughly 500 councillor positions compared to 2021.
The consequences extend well beyond employment statistics. Councillors who lose their seats typically expect the party to provide alternative positions. When those positions are unavailable, resentment builds among displaced officials, creating conditions where they may expose internal corruption or party misconduct to undermine rivals or extract concessions. This dynamic is already visible across South African municipalities, where politically motivated violence has intensified as the election approaches. Several assassinations and attempted assassinations of councillors occur each month, reflecting the high stakes surrounding municipal positions and the tensions fracturing party ranks.
A significant reduction in available council seats would likely deepen those internal divisions, making it harder for ANC leadership to maintain discipline over its municipal representatives. The departure of 500 councillors would also weaken the party’s organizational capacity at the local level and threaten the patronage networks that have long sustained cohesion and loyalty within its structures.
For citizens, the concern is practical. Municipal councils are the tier of government closest to everyday life, responsible for the services that affect health, safety, and basic wellbeing. Whether a weakened and internally fractured ANC can continue to govern those councils effectively, or whether the coming disruption accelerates a broader realignment of local power, remains the open question hanging over November’s vote.
Q&A
How many ANC councillors are projected to lose their jobs after November's elections?
Approximately 500 ANC councillors face job losses, representing a reduction from 4,548 council seats in 2021 to approximately 4,000 seats in the November election out of roughly 9,000 total available seats.
What public services are at risk due to municipal governance disruption?
Water, sanitation, and basic service delivery are at risk, as municipal councils are the tier of government closest to citizens and directly responsible for these essential services affecting health, safety, and wellbeing.
How has the ANC's electoral advantage in municipal elections historically worked?
The ANC's support is distributed widely across the country rather than concentrated in specific regions, allowing the party to win ward seats with relatively modest vote shares while opposition votes fragment among multiple parties. This structural advantage has historically converted vote share into outsized seat gains: 46 percent of votes in 2021 became 52 percent of seats; 54 percent of votes in 2016 became 60 percent of seats.
What internal party consequences could result from widespread councillor displacement?
Displaced councillors without alternative positions may expose internal corruption or party misconduct, creating conditions for resentment and politically motivated violence. This dynamic could deepen internal divisions, weaken the party's organizational capacity at the local level, and threaten patronage networks that sustain cohesion and loyalty within ANC structures.