Stats SA rebases GDP, lifting economy to R8.044-trillion

Stats SA has raised South Africa’s gross domestic product by 5.3% to R8.044-trillion for 2025, up from the previously stated R7.642-trillion, delivering a sharper picture of the economy than previously understood. The revision, published in line with international best practice requiring periodic updates to national accounts, also shows four industries increasing their share of economic output while manufacturing extends a decline stretching back decades.

The statistical agency rebased GDP to 2022 from 2015, lifting the size of the economy in the base year by 4.9% to R6.99-trillion from R6.667-trillion. The previous benchmarking, completed in 2021, also used 2015 as its base year. The recommended practice is to benchmark and rebase every five years. The update was delayed by the pandemic, which forced a pause to allow economic activity to return to normal before measurement.

Accountability for the accuracy of these figures rests with the methodology itself, and this is where some of the biggest corrections occurred. The largest adjustment was in mining, whose measured size was raised 12.5% because of the inclusion and better coverage of illegal mining, activity that had been missing from statistical collections. The second biggest change, at 9.1%, came in finance, real estate and business services, driven mainly by improved methodology for compiling owner-occupied housing estimates in real estate activities.

The exercise also updated source data and improved the methodology for the nonobserved economy, the term for economic activity absent from statistical data collections and administrative sources, as well as owner-occupied rent. The benchmarking improvements lifted the contribution of nonobserved economies to overall output to 8.7% from 8%. Trade, transport and communication, along with manufacturing, are the largest contributors within that category, while agriculture accounts for the least. Before the pandemic, the data showed consistent growth in both the observed and nonobserved economies. Afterwards, the nonobserved economy expanded significantly.

What changed beyond the headline number is the historical record itself, which matters for how policymakers assess past decisions. Stats SA tweaked real GDP movements since 2018: the 6.2% contraction previously reported for 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, is now recorded as a 6.8% shrinkage, while last year’s growth has been revised down to 0.9% from 1.1%.

The composition of the economy has shifted notably. Finance, real estate and business services remains the largest of the 10 industries measured, with its contribution to GDP edging up to 21.8%. Three other industries saw their weightings rise: mining and quarrying, up 0.5 percentage points; trade, catering and accommodation, up 0.3 points; and transport, storage and communication, up 0.1 points. Manufacturing slipped further, its contribution easing to 11.9% from 12.4%, dropping it from third to fourth largest industry. The sector has deteriorated sharply since 1995, when it was the country’s largest, accounting for 21.5% of GDP.

South Africa’s GDP, compiled quarterly and annually, measures production, meaning what industries supply, as well as consumption, which captures demand for goods and services from local residents and the rest of the world. On the demand side, household final consumption expenditure saw the largest revision, with increased levels in nine of the thirteen household expenditure categories. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels accounted for 60% of the R315bn increase in that measure.

Raymond Parsons, an economist at North-West University Business School, said the review highlights resilient foundations in key sectors and signals that structural reforms are beginning to yield some positive results. “The services sector seems to have done most of the heavy lifting to anchor economic activity, and household consumption is still revealed as a vital engine of growth. Fixed investment, on the other hand, remains a lagging factor,” he said. “Though the new GDP data has improved the look of various key ratios, the absolute metrics do not change and remain a valid reality. Looking ahead, and despite the real positive pockets of improvement in the economy, the broader outlook still reveals vulnerabilities at various levels.”

“The headwinds and tailwinds that need to be navigated by South Africa remain the same. The revised GDP picture emphasises why accelerating the pace and implementation of key structural reforms are nonetheless still needed to unlock South Africa’s true economic potential, if South Africa is to break out of its current narrow 1%-2% growth corridor,” Parsons added.

Whether the fuller accounting of previously unmeasured activity, from illegal mining to the nonobserved economy, will now sharpen the case for those reforms in government decision-making remains the open question.